Problem 1: An agricultural and production horticulture workforce crisis

An ageing and homogenous workforce

The agricultural labour force is ageing and is facing barriers to attracting a younger and more diverse workforce. According to the Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment’s Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), the agricultural sector is facing the combined challenges of an ageing workforce, with a median age of 49 and less than a quarter of the workforce under the age of 35. There is also limited diversity in the workforce, with only one in ten workers in agriculture coming from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds (Bink, Srenekes, Kruger & Kancans, 2018). The same research also points to lower levels of technical training and educational attainment among workers in the sector than among the wider Australian workforce. This suggests a need for an intentional role of skills and training within new workforce development solutions.  

In illustrating the significance of the workforce crisis and the urgency of meaningful solutions, the National Farmers Federation has identified that:  

• there is an immediate shortfall of 101,000 full-time equivalent agricultural workers,
• on-farm employment has fallen by 25% over the past 3 decades,
• getting young people interested and engaged in agriculture faces the dilemma of a poor public perception and limited understanding of the industry,   
• There is an unsustainable ongoing reliance on migrant labour, and
• Education and training is not currently fit for purpose. 

Analysis on the Future of Australia’s Agricultural Workforce by CSIRO has highlighted the need for education and training for the agricultural sector “to adapt and cater to the emerging skills requirements driven by technology.” CSIRO’s analysis of labour market needs also emphasizes how “continuing aggregation of farms across the sector will increasingly demand a workforce with generalist skills from a wide range of disciplines” (Wu et al 2019, p62). While there is a suite of existing occupationally specific vocational programs for the wider food and fibre sector, analysis of future workforce needs points to reform needed in how training programs provide a broad foundation of technical and generalist skills.

Attracting more young people into agricultural careers through developing more fit for purpose education and training pathways has been a consistent finding of recent reviews of the sector and its sustainability. Since 2019 there have been 16 reports and reviews that have detailed the workforce development problems facing the agricultural sector and how they impact the sustainability of the sector. Of these reports and reviews, the key documents are the National Farmers Federation (NFF) 2030 Roadmap: Australian Agriculture’s Plan for a $100 Billion Industry, the National Agricultural Labour Advisory Committee’s National Agricultural Workforce Strategy and the Department of Agriculture, Water and Environments Building the Agricultural Workforce of the Future: The Australian Government response to the National Agricultural Workforce Strategy. These reports have emphasised the severe workforce development crisis facing the sector and identified the need for increasing graduates from all levels of vocational, tertiary, and higher education and sustained investment in human capital.

New collaborative approaches and training investments are needed 

Across the reports there is recognition that agriculture visas and employer subsidies as current workforce solutions are not a sustainable solution. They recognise that demand for technical, managerial and numeracy skills will continue, and generalist skills will become increasingly important for workers entering the sector. Under-investment in education and training is at the centre of many issues identified above. 

Recommendations and findings from these numerous reviews and studies highlight that new approaches and investments are needed in skills and training for addressing agricultural workforce challenges, including:   

• Greater collaboration among industry to address common skill sets,
• building closer links between industry and education institutions and radically scaling on-the job training,  
• And expanding high quality entry-level training

To enhance the capacity of skills and training to support future workforce development of the agricultural sector, CSIRO research emphasizes the need for “upskilling educators, creating new (or redesigning existing) courses, and providing greater access to skills training for existing or aspiring agricultural workers (e.g. through TAFE and/or distance education systems)” (Wu et al 2019, p 62). 

A clear and consistent picture of both crisis and opportunity emerges from these numerous agricultural workforce reviews of the last several years. Within these reviews, sector experts and stakeholders are calling for greater cross sectoral collaboration, sustained investment in education and training solutions and increased on the job training. However, none of the reports offer concrete or sustainable solutions for addressing the workforce development crisis in the food and fibre communities that are most in need, nor how to operationalise sustained collaboration and expanded on the job training in place. The AgFutures project, as a cross sectoral collaborative partnership aimed at strengthening links between industry and training providers, aims to leverage deep understanding of the workforce problems and needs, to enable the collaborative co-design and co-deliver of an employment-based pathway to agricultural jobs. 

Problem 2: Sustained disengagement and youth un/under-employment rates among disadvantaged young people in the region 

Addressing disadvantage in place 

As the Victorian economy broadly and Barwon South West local economy specifically emerge from the restrictions of 2020 and 2021, labour market recovery has been sluggish for young people aged 15-24. Job creation has slowed, and young people are competing against older workers with more education and experience. Young people in transition from education to work are vulnerable, especially those with low educational attainment, existing employment precarity, in hardest hit occupations, and in geographic ‘hotspots’ experiencing concentrated disadvantage. 

In Victoria, youth unemployment peaked at 15.4% in March 2021 (12 month rolling average) and while it has started to settle to 11.2% in January 2022, long-term unemployment and increasing reliance on part-time and precarious work remain a challenge for the region’s young people. Acknowledging the caution needed in interpreting the localised sample of the ABS labour market survey for the Warrnambool and South West region (which most closely corresponds to the Barwon South West region), unemployment remains a sustained issue, with an unemployment rate of 7.7% in January 2022. Unemployment and exclusion from the labour market remains a particular issue for early school leavers and those completing school without continuing in further education or training. Unemployment and an increasing reliance on part-time an precarious work are also a key structural challenge weakening career mobility and labour market security of young people in the Barwon South West region. In January 2022, amongst those 15-24 there were 3,400 employed full-time and 5,700 employed part-time, with 2,700 not in the labour force. Whereas in January 2020, amongst this cohort 6,100 were employed full time, 4,700 part-time and 4,900 not in the labour force. 

Despite high demand for an agricultural workforce in the Barwon South West region and sustained availability of entry level jobs, youth unemployment and under-employment remain high and young job seekers face a range of barriers to accessing work in the sector, such as access to transport and knowledge about range and types of work available. Building pathways to sustainable job outcomes for young people requires more than matching a job seeker with a vacancy. A place-based understanding of how young people, particularly those experiencing disadvantage, require localised support to access to employment-based learning is central to addressing localised barriers and challenges. Young people also require access to opportunities, resources and networks that can help them develop goals and aspirations and access to community services and networks that can help them sustain employment and overcome challenges as they arise. Deep understanding of and networks for responding to place-based challenges requires harnessing local stakeholders in all phases of pathway design and delivery, and enable local collaboration to implement sustainable local solutions.  

There are several programs and initiatives being implemented and trialled across Victoria and Australia that have a general focus on building a sustainable agricultural workforce. As the reviews of the sector cited above highlight, attracting younger workers is key to the sectors sustainability. As the youth unemployment rate in Barwon South West continues to decline from the heights of the pandemic, a generic workforce development focus is insufficient for building fit for purpose pathways to enable the region’s young people to build awareness of, skills for and employment in the region’s agricultural business. A youth specific approach is needed, with a particular focus on addressing the structural barriers of sustained unemployment and low educational attainment for disengaged young people. This includes expanding opportunities for young people to develop skills while earning a wage. The AgFutures project, through the inclusion in the partnership of both a youth employment specialist organisation and the deep youth services expertise of BSL, brings a specialist focus on disengaged and unemployed young people to the response to agricultural workforce shortages. 

Problem 3: Declining uptake and completion of entry level agricultural programs among young workforce entrants

Strengthening VET to build agricultural careers 

Vocational education and training (VET) and foundational vocational pathways play a vital and impactful re-engagement role for disengaged and early school leaving young people (Lim, 2022). As identified above, the role of skills and training is consistently emphasised in recent agricultural reviews as a key feature of future workforce development solutions. Unfortunately, enrolments in and completion of agricultural training courses continue to decline and current programmatic solutions and systemic subsidies are not having an impact in arresting declining VET enrolments.  .   

Analysis of NCVER total VET activity data indicates that across the five years from 2016 to 2021 there have been only 1,351 young people (15-24 years old and not in school) in the region enrolling in agriculture related VET programs. There has been a steady decline in the numbers of young people participating in agricultural courses each year, dropping from 273 in 2017 to just 189 in 2020. This decline has included a drop in the number of young people pursuing employment-based training pathways through agricultural apprenticeships and traineeships. The number of agricultural apprentices and trainees in the region declined from 138 in 2017 to just 96 in 2021.   

The data on completions of agriculture related programs is even more dire. From 2016-2021 there have been only 533 young people completing VET qualifications related to agriculture in the region. The number of young people successfully completing an agriculture related program declined from 134 in 2017 to just 51 in 2021. The majority of these qualification completions have been in the Certificate III in Agriculture, a qualification described by employers and industry stakeholders consulted during the design of the initiative as insufficient for preparing young people to be adaptable and mobile within the industry and limited in its capacity to enable sustained and meaningful employment-based and work-based learning. Inititaitve design input from Brophy and other youth employment specialists working with young people also point to the length of the Certificate III course as de-incentivising young people who are increasing needing and looking for pathways with short term line of sight to employment and inclusive of opportunities to learn in the workplace.  

The foundational skills for further training and readiness for employment are also impacted by the levels of school attainment of young people entering agricultural jobs and training. The latest data from the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) indicates that just over 50% of young people who completed agricultural courses in the region in 2021 had not completed year 12 (NCVER 2023).    

Access to and successful completion of training are only part of the story of how young people build career foundations. The conversion of training to a secure and sustainable job outcome relies heavily on the trust employers place in the training product, the training provider and the relevance of the skills to the functioning of their farms and businesses. Strengthening the role that vocational education and training plays in building young people’s skills for agricultural careers relies on both an expanded role for employers in the design and delivery of the pathways, and increased visibility of the employment outcome for young people. 

As highlighted above, building fit for purpose training pathways for unemployed and/or disengaged young people requires expanded opportunities for combining learning and work, and ensuring that the skills young people are developing hold currency in the labour market. The AgFutures project, in bringing together industry, employers, a training provider and youth employment specialist expertise, aims to co-design a fit for purpose foundational pathway that a) builds visibility of the employment outcome from the beginning, b) centres employers as key co-designers of the training pathway and c) through that co-design ensures currency of those skills for young people to access and sustain employment.  Vocational education and training (VET) and foundational vocational pathways play a vital and impactful re-engagement role for disengaged and early school leaving young people (Lim, 2022). As identified above, the role of skills and training is consistently emphasised in recent agricultural reviews as a key feature of future workforce development solutions. Unfortunately, enrolments in and completion of agricultural training courses continue to decline and current programmatic solutions and systemic subsidies are not having an impact in arresting declining VET enrolments.  .